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NO RISK, NO LIFE

     


      No one can lead a life without taking risk.  But, we have to calculate and minimize the risk.  We always think flying is riskier than travelling by car.  But, mathematically it is wrong.  There are about 4 fatalities in every million hours of flying -says planecrashinfo.com.  The corresponding figure for driving is 12 to 15 fatalities per billion miles.

     There is a unit for measuring risk.  It is called "micromort" - invented by Stanford university professor Ronald A Howard.  "A micromort is a one -in - a -million chance of dying while undertaking an activity".
    In England -2012, about 48 people died everyday from things other than natural causes, out of a population of 56.5 million - so  the probability of not surviving a day is 48/56500000 or 0.0000008.  We can also write, "the risk is 0.8 micromort".  In US, it is 1.6 micromort.
    6 miles motor of bike ride carries a risk of 1  'micromort and so does a 250 mile drive in a car.  But, it takes a thousand miles of jet travel to rise the risk to one micromort. 
    A new born carries the risk of 12-15 micromort.  The child from the age 7 to 18 just carries 1 micromort risk.  The risk increases with the age, at 60 it is 23.  At 75, it is 105.

 HOW TO JUMP FROM A BURNING BUILDING
    Say, you are in the second floor of a building which is in fire.  You can jump out of the window.  It is only 4.6 meters above the ground.  You may hit the ground at the speed of 34 kilo meters per hour due to gravity.  You may land in a hospital rather than a morgue at that speed.
    But you can try innovative methods and reduce the risk.  1. You can hang on the ledge of the window and drop yourself.  The speed will be reduced to 24 kilo meters per hour which will cause less injuries.  2. You can make a rope out of bed-sheets and climb down,  3. you can increase air resistance by using bed sheets  as a parachute and fall down slowly. 4, You can search for a place to soft land, like sand or even trash.
    Always , think, calculate, reduce risk and live.  Life has to go on.  Risk can be measured and compared using the unit micromort.   

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