Skip to main content

A FORMULA TO FIND A SERIAL KILLER

      Is it possible to create a formula to locate a serial killer? Yes, one man has done it. Mathematics looks for a pattern. Serial killers leave some pattern. From that pattern, we can make a formula.

     Serial killers strike some distance away from their residence, but not too far away.


 ADVT: TODAY'S DEALS IN AMAZON

    We select a large area where the killer is supposed to be hiding and map it. We superimpose the map on a square grid. Each square can be located using x, y coordinates as shown in the figure. We select a particular square(shaded one) and we will find the probability that "the killer will be residing there" using a formula.

The formula is 

            The formula seems more threatening than a serial killer. Anyway, we will go step by step and understand the formula.

Pij-- represents the probability finding the killer at the location i, j (x,y coordinates). The answer ranges from 0 to 1.  higher the probability,  higher the chance of finding him at the given place.

     xi, yi are co-ordinates of the place for which we want to find the probability. xn,yn are the co-ordinates of the place where the nth crime took place. Here we assume that he has already committed several crimes. 

(xi-xn)+(yi-yn) = the distance of separation of the killer's "home" and the spot of nth crime.

    B-Buffer area, the area in which the crimes are said to occur. It is a little distance away from his home.

    The first and second parts of the formula perform a sort of "balancing act" expressing the fact that as you move away from the criminal's base, the probability of crimes first increases (as you move through the buffer zone) and then decreases.

     Rossmo chose the value f,g,B and s using solved past criminal cases.

    The formula is calculated for each crime of the killer and all the answers are summed up. Finally, it gives the probability for the criminals base at a particular place i,j (co-ordinates).

    Once the formula is used to calculate the probabilities pij of all of the little squares in the grid, it is easy to make a hot zone map. You just color the squares with the highest probabilities bright yellow, slightly smaller probabilities orange, then red, and so on. leaving the square with low probabilities uncolored.

    The hot zone, the yellow region in which the criminal's residence is located, to a very high probability. The police team can investigate men within a certain range of ages, who live in the hot zone, and use surveillance, and stealth tactics to obtain DNA evidence from the suspects' discarded cigarette buts, drinking straws, and the like, which can be matched with DNA from the crime scene investigations. Then, in all probability, they will solve the case within a few days.

    Hence mathematics can solve a murder case if it is used with ingenuity.        

      

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

THE EARTH, A SUPER ORGANISM

     JOIN MY COURSE: "Become a programmer in a day with python"       A man called 'love lock' (what a name) proposed a theory called Gaia theory, named after Greek Goddess.      It says, "Earth is a self-regulating organism like a human being.  The organic life in it interacts with in-organic matter and maintains atmosphere, temperature and environment".  Hence the earth is still suitable for the life to thrive.      Imagine, in a particular place, there are lot of flowers.  Some flowers are white and some are darkly coloured.  We know, white reflects light and heat while dark absorbs the same.  White flowers can thrive in hot climate.  But dark flowers requires cold climate.  The absorption and reflection balances and the environment reaches average, warm temperature at which both the flowers can co-exist.  This is the essence of "Gaia" theory.      On our earth, ...
3 comments
Read more

THE PARABOLA

          A jet of water shooting from a hose pipe will follow a parabolic path.  What is the so special about parabola.    Y= x^2 Draw a graph for the above equation.  It will result in a parabola.  This parabola is also called unit parabola.  Any equation involving square will yield a parabola. Example:  Y = 2x^2 +3x+3 (also called quadratic equation)    X= 2 and -2, both  satisfies the equation 4 = X^2.  Parabolic equations always have two solutions.     Any motion taking place freely under gravity follows parabolic path. Examples:   An object dropped from a moving train,   A bomb dropped from flying plane,  A ball kicked upwards.      If a beam of light rays fall on the parabolic shaped mirror, they will be reflected and brought to focus on a point.  This fact is made use of in Dish Antenna, Telescope mirrors, etc.   ...
Post a Comment
Read more

DISORDER IS THE "ORDER OF THE DAY"

         Imagine a balloon full of air.  The air molecules are moving randomly inside the balloon.  Let us pierce the balloon with a pin.  The air rushes out.  Why should not the air molecules stay inside the balloon safely and ignore the little hole?  That is not the way the world works.  The molecules always "want to occupy as many states as possible".  Hence the air goes out in the open to occupy more volume.   The things always goes into disorder (entropy) and the disorder increases with time.  The above statement is what we call "second law of thermodynamics".      Consider a cup of coffee on the table. Suppose the heat from entire room flows to your cup of coffee, the coffee will boil and the rest of the room will freeze.  Freezing means bringing things to order and arrangement.  It violates the second law.  Hence it will never happen.  Hence heat must flow from high ...
Post a Comment
Read more