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IS GUESSING IN EXAMINATION OK?

 


  Toss a coin 100 times.  You are likely to get head around 50 times.  So there is a 50 % chance of getting a head or a tail. In other words, the probability of getting a head or a tail is 1/2.  The range of probability is 0 (no chance)   to 1(100% chance).  

     Suppose you toss a coin 3 times, what is the chance of getting a head in all the 3 throws.  Here the multiplication rule comes to our help.  This rule can be applied when the events are independent of each other.  Just multiply the probability of the event 3 times. 

total probability = 1/2*1/2*1/2=(1/2)^3 = 1/8 = 0.125

 The probability of getting only heads 3 times consecutively is 1/8 or 1 in 8.  That is , if 8 persons throw the coins 3 times, 'one'  may get the head all the three times.  

     Let us assume that in a multiple choice question, there are 4 choices and one among them is correct.  Guessing that correct answer has a chance of 1/4.  If there are 10 questions, what is the probability of guessing all the answers right.  We know by applying multiplication rule it is (1/4)^10 = 0.0000009536.

 By taking reverse,
1/0.0000009536 = 104857

The chance is 1 in 100000.  It  means, if 100000 students write the 10 questions test, one may get all the answers right by guessing and not applying the knowledge.  Hence the examination board is taking a safe bet.
That is why only three tries are allowed in a bank website for entering the password.
So do not take chance, use wisdom.    

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