PROBABILITY-THREAD BARE

If you toss a coin, the chance of getting a "head" is 50%. That is , chance is 1/2 or 0.5 ( That means, if a coin is thrown 2 times, you will likely to get one head or if you toss the coin 100 times, you are likely get 50 heads ) . The probability of getting any one (head or tail) is 100% or 1. The probability of getting no head and no tail is zero. Hence the limits of probability are 0 (no chance) and 1 (guaranteed). The chance of drawing " king of diamond" from a deck of cards is 1/52. The chance of rolling a 'Three' in a dice game is 1/6 (since six faces). Thus goes the probability.

Can a child, a monkey or a blind folded man (without the knowledge of typewriting ) type a word or two correctly? Can a computer write a poem? let us see.

Let us take two words NO and YES. What is the chance of typing 'N' randomly. We know , it is 1/26. The chance of typing 'O' is also 1/26. Then, what is the chance of typing N and O consequently. The multiplication rule in statistics says, it is 1/26 * 1/26 = 1/676. It means, if you type 676 times randomly on your keyboard, you will get a 'NO' at some instant. For 'YES" the chance is 1/26 *1/26 * 1/26 = 1/17576, it will take longer to get an 'YES'

Machine can type in random manner fast. With proper rules (algorithm), they can coin words, sentences or even poem.

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THE EARTH, A SUPER ORGANISM

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CASINO'S GAME

Let us find out how the casino survives with mathematics. Say, your friend invite you for a game of dice. You must bet (wager) 2 dollars. If you roll 'six' you will get back 8 dollars. The game will go on for 30 rounds. All sounds good. The probability of rolling 'six' is 1/6. Since the game will be played for 30 times, the 'expected win' is 30*1/6 = 5. That is, you are expected to win 5 rounds out of 30. Hence your gain will be 5 * 8 =40 dollars. ok. This also implies that you will loose 25 rounds. Hence your loss will be 25*2 =50 dollars. Your net gain will be gain-less = 40-50 = -10 dollars. For 30 rounds, the loss is -10 dollars, Hence, for one round =-10/30 = -1/3 dollars. There will be a loss of -1/3 or 0.33 dollars per round. It is not a fair game. Let us make a simple formula to calculate 'Pa...

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